It’s the final day of 2012.
This was a year which saw the Milwaukee Brewers attempt (unsuccessfully) to defend a division championship for the first time since 1983. It was the first time that the Brewers featured their very own defending league Most Valuable Player since 1990. They entered the season with an intact rotation which used the fewest different arms (6) to make all 162 starts. Arguably the league’s most fearsome bullpen back-end was returning as well with only a couple of key veterans taking jobs elsewhere. And sure, Prince Fielder followed the money to Detroit but this was going to be Mat Gamel’s breakout year and Aramis Ramirez would pick up most of the slack…at least once May rolled around, he would.
Alas, we all know how things turned out in 2012 so I shan’t recap the trials, tribulations, trade, and triumphs that resulted in 83 victories a year after winning a franchise-record 96 games.
No, for this column we look forward. We look forward to 2013. We look forward to P&C. We look much too far forward to Opening Day with this set of projections.
If the season started tomorrow, the following things would be true:
- I’d be extremely happy that I wouldn’t have to still be counting down to Opening Day (91 days as of this writing).
- I’d be extremely cold while tailgating outside of Miller Park for a few hours on my wife’s birthday.
- I’d have failed miserably in posting my season preview “Brewers By the Jersey Numbers” articles.
But really, I’m posting today to take a look at how the current roster stacks up and what I think a 25-man roster would look like when the games started counting.
I gotta tell you all that I would normally not make this projection for quite some time but with Doug Melvin’s declaration that they were “coming to the end” of acquiring free agents (or however he exactly worded it), chances are the majority of options at the team’s disposal today are going to be the same options they are presented with in 43 days when Pitchers and Catchers officially report.
Of course, and it should go without needing to be said, a ton can change between now and then anyway despite appearances. Somebody could be traded. Somebody could be signed as a veteran backup where currently only inexperience resides. Somebody could injure themselves in a pickup basketball game. Et cetera. But if we accounted for every “if” that we could, nobody would ever project anything. That’s simply not much fun.
Assuming everyone is through rehab successfully, here is how my 25-man roster would look if the season started tomorrow. (Players listed alphabetically within their position group.)
Starting Pitchers (5)
- Marco Estrada
- Mike Fiers
- Yovani Gallardo
- Chris Narveson*
- Mark Rogers
I know what you’re thinking. “Free Wily Peralta!” I agree that he’s likely one of the best five options available to fill a spot in the rotation but based on the necessary evil of depth maintenance and with respect to the rules on minor league options, this just feels like the rotation that will head north from Arizona. Gallardo is a lock. Estrada was mentioned more than once this off-season as having an advantage in the competition. (He also isn’t hurt by the fact that his manager really likes his pitching.) Fiers did more than enough throughout most the season to be given a shot from the get. After adding two left-handed relievers to the bullpen, sticking Narveson in there doesn’t make sense anymore (if it ever did). Rogers is out of options and I really want to see him get a shot to contribute as a starting pitcher. He won’t make it through waivers to Nashville. Peralta has options remaining and that’s what this should come down to. Don’t doubt for a minute though that if Fiers struggles for a few starts early and it appears that the end of 2012 was due to being “figured out” more so than simply fatigue, he’ll be optioned down to Nashville in favor of the young Dominican.
Tyler Thornburg will get a look this spring but I feel like they don’t want to mess with him as a reliever this year at all. They’ll give him a full season starting in Triple-A. Hopefully with the regular and steady work he was used to, he’ll be able to avoid the arm fatigue that slowed his development in 2012. Hiram Burgos, just added to the 40-man roster, should also pitch in games in big league camp to start the spring, but after skyrocketing through the system this year, he’ll be in Nashville’s rotation when camp breaks.
Relief Pitchers (7)
- John Axford (Closer)
- Burke Badenhop
- Mike Gonzalez*
- Tom Gorzelanny*
- Jim Henderson
- Brandon Kintzler
- Michael Olmsted
One open spot for competition. Many feel that the aforementioned Peralta should be in the rotation and that either Narveson or Rogers will become the default long reliever as a effect. For me, the final spot in the ‘pen will come down to one of the recent high-ceiling additions which Melvin and his staff have picked up this off-season. If I had my druthers, Michael Olmsted gets first crack at it. Spring Training performance might dictate that he isn’t ready for the jump over Triple-A, and this might be specifically adjusted in March, but based on minor league numbers, projectability, and stuff, Olmsted appears to be at the top of the influx of opportunity-seekers. Olmsted is already on the 40-man roster too, something that would come into play should someone like a Jairo Asencio continue to impress.
Last year’s swingman Josh Stinson has an option remaining so he’ll head to the minors. Likewise Miguel De Los Santos. One other note, as of this posting the Mike Gonzalez deal still hadn’t been made official. When it is, someone must come off the 40-man roster. I think that will be Fautino De Los Santos. So, if he’s even still with the organization, he’ll be tucked away in the minors to begin the year.
- Jonathan Lucroy
- Martin Maldonado
Need there be a lengthy explanation? How’s this: no other catchers on the 40-man; these two played very well all year (when healthy); next best options coming to camp are Blake Lalli and Dayton Buller. Next!
- Jeff Bianchi
- Mat Gamel**
- Corey Hart
- Donnie Murphy
- Aramis Ramirez
- Jean Segura
- Rickie Weeks
A “traditional” roster usually consists of six infielders and five outfielders. I’ve split this roster differently for a couple of reasons though. First, Mat Gamel and Jeff Bianchi are both out of minor league options. Bianchi performed okay last year in his first big league action, but really what the Brewers will be holding onto is depth at shortstop. Sure, they wouldn’t have to add Donnie Murphy to the 40-man roster at all and could just stash him in the minors to begin the year but he is the superior defender to Bianchi and can more capably cover defensively at the hot corner. Furthermore, the team has made no secret of the designs to have Gamel play in the corner outfield spots this spring along with Corey Hart’s obvious ability to fill in should an emergency arise.
Taylor Green will once again be the victim of circumstance, but he is more valuable to the organization playing everyday anyway even if that’s at Nashville. He can stay ready at the plate and be called upon if an injury creates a need.
- Norichika Aoki**
- Ryan Braun
- Carlos Gomez
- Logan Schafer**
To elaborate a bit on my point from above, Logan Schafer can play all three defensive outfield positions very well. He can take over for any of the regulars when they need a day off and can be utilized in double-switches late in games. It’d be the same way that the Brewers played the majority of 2012 defensively once Hart moved to first base. Assuming that day’s starting outfield was Braun-Gomez-Aoki, Nyjer Morgan was the only “true” outfielder remaining on the roster. Schafer can do more than Morgan could defensively and still brings at least as much at the plate from the same left side.
For the record, if the Brewers did decide to carry five outfielders, I’d guess that Murphy would begin the season in the minors for depth and the extra outfielder would be Caleb Gindl. This seven IFs and four OFs configuration can work, though, with the proper personnel. The Brewers would have that group in 2013 should they choose to go that route. I would.
Opening Day Lineup
- Rickie Weeks
- Norichika Aoki
- Ryan Braun
- Aramis Ramirez
- Corey Hart
- Jonathan Lucroy
- Carlos Gomez
- Jean Segura
- Yovani Gallardo
On Opening Day I foresee manager Ron Roenicke looking to do a couple of things with his lineup. I think he’d like to have Weeks back up near the top and despite how Aoki performed so well while leading off in 2012 I think he’ll play the same card he did once he moved Weeks down the lineup last year to justify the order I have listed. You may recall that on days when Carlos Gomez started in center, Aoki batted second because Aoki handled the bat better to move the leadoff hitter over should he reach base. When Morgan started in center Roenicke felt that Aoki’s patience resulted in a better chance to get on base for the rest of the lineup. As we know, despite typically low batting averages, Weeks gets on base. His .350 career OBP is 99 points higher than his career batting average and only .005 lower than what Aoki did in his rookie season. What’s more, despite the struggles Weeks had for a majority of 2012, he still managed to walk 74 times (and reached based 13 more times after being hit by a pitch).
That being the situation near the top, I think it affords Roenicke the opportunity to begin with Gomez further down the order where he won’t hurt the Brewers early on in the season should he regress from last year’s breakout. If Gomez proves that 2012 is the baseline going forward then Roenicke will have a good problem with which to deal.
Segura is still young, still growing into his skills and performed well enough in the oft-dreaded “spot before the pitcher” that he could flourish there to begin the year. His winter league numbers are also encouraging regardless of the competition level. If he can develop more patience, he’ll be contributing plenty out of the 8th spot all season.
* - Throws left-handed ** - Bats left-handed
So that’s how I see things shaking out if the season started tomorrow.
The Winter Meetings aren’t officially underway just yet as I sit down to give my keyboard a workout this evening, but the Opryland Hotel in Nashville, Tennessee is set and baseball executives from across North America have checked into their rooms and have no doubt begun to follow up on things begun prior to departing for Music City.
Doug Melvin is there (along with his entourage) and has had plenty to say about what he expects out of the 2012 Winter Meetings. With appreciation to the Milwaukee Journal/Sentinel for the quotes themselves, I’ll be laying out some things Melvin said and analyzing what I think they mean for the Brewers heading through the rest of the off-season.
Before I do that, let’s recap the basics about what educated fans know already about the Brewers and their needs.
The bullpen was bad in 2012. In fact, it underperformed so incredibly that it alone could be labeled as a singular reason that the team failed to reach the postseason. Just a handful of losses flipped to wins and the Brewers would have had that opportunity to face the Braves in the first-ever National League Wild Card Game.
As a result of their collective struggles, the bullpen has been basically gutted. Gone are multi-year Brewers like Kameron Loe, Francisco Rodriguez, Tim Dillard, Mike McClendon, and Manny Parra. Along with them, first-year tryouts for Jose Veras and Livan Hernandez ended in free agency. Even short-term fixes like Vinnie Chulk came and went. The only guys left who pitched in the big league bullpen to end the regular season and are still a part of this organization are likely closer John Axford, likely setup man Jim Henderson, and the finally healthy Brandon Kintzler.
As we all know, the Brewers did announce a trade acquisition on Saturday when they dealt a minor-league outfielder for established relief pitcher Burke Badenhop. That addition still leaves three jobs to be filled. FoxSports.com’s Jon Morosi already tweeted earlier this evening about one of those open roles:
#Brewers are prioritizing a lefty reliever. Among the available free agents: Burnett, Choate, M. Gonzalez, Howell, Gorzelanny.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 2, 2012
Just some names to know.
A return of all five starting pitchers from the 2011 NLCS team was seen as a rarity, not to mention that the Brewers only used six starting pitchers all that season. Now? Randy Wolf was released, Shaun Marcum is a free agent, Zack Greinke was traded, and Chris Narveson is coming off of shoulder surgery.
That’s the stuff of how question marks are made.
Yovani Gallardo is set to return atop the rotation but after that hasn’t yet been decided. As it stands right now, the Brewers have probably six arms vying for the open four spots in the rotation. Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Chris Narveson, Wily Peralta, Mark Rogers and, to a lesser extent in my opinion, Tyler Thornburg.
Doug Melvin has mentioned a couple of free agent starters by name this off-season already (Edwin Jackson and Ryan Dempster, for the record) but had some commentary on that front as well.
Will Jean Segura begin the season as the starting everyday shortstop in Milwaukee or in the aforementioned city of Nashville as he gets a bit more seasoning in Triple-A? Who will take over as the backup infielders after the Brewers burned through a number of MLB veterans during 2012? Travis Ishikawa is gone, Alex Gonzalez is a free agent after being hurt most of the season, Mat Gamel should be healthy but missed a ton of at-bats and doesn’t really have a job at this point…and that’s just the infield.
In the outfield, Nyjer Morgan was released and Logan Schafer seems incredibly obvious to become the fourth outfielder with Milwaukee. After that, though, will they carry a fifth outfielder? If so, who will it be?
About the only spot on the field where there isn’t a question is behind the plate. Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado are healthy and coming off of strong seasons.
Excuse whilst I knock on some wood.
Okay. With that, let’s get to those quotes from Melvin.
The big quote is one about payroll. After setting a franchise record in 2012 with a payroll north of $100 million, the Brewers finished in the red, meaning that they actually lost money this year. (Part of that is because the fans didn’t show up quite as well as they had budgeted for, but wins bring attendance.)
Melvin said, “(The payroll is) coming down. We’ll probably look at (an opening payroll) of $80 million or thereabouts. We want to keep flexibility in case players become available.”
In other words, despite a large chunk of money coming off the books there should be no expectation of a dollar-for-dollar reassignment. That could limit how much the Brewers can do in free agency but it will almost certainly limit the magnitude of what the Brewers can do.
That assumes that Melvin sticks to his initial words, but more on that in a bit.
Melvin was clear in that the Brewers don’t plan to get involved on high-end (in terms of years or dollars) relief pitchers.
“We’re not looking at those kinds of guys. We’d probably be reluctant to go three years with anybody. We might have to do two. David Riske was our last three-year deal for a reliever. That didn’t work out,” said Melvin.
Would left-handed reliever Sean Burnett be a pipe-dream then? Burnett had to debunk a rumor that he was seeking a four-year deal but that doesn’t mean he isn’t looking for three.
The starting rotation was mentioned earlier and was brought up to Melvin as well. He stated that with how the contracts worked out with Jeff Suppan and Randy Wolf that the Brewers “wouldn’t go three years with a starter. You look at those contracts and they don’t usually work out. Look at all the free-agent players who have been traded the last few years. Free agency gets people excited, but it’s not as effective as people would like to think.”
Does that mean that following a report which I linked to on Twitter the other day that the Brewers are taking themselves out of the market for the aforementioned Jackson and Dempster, both of whom are believed to be seeking deals of a minimum three years? Perhaps.
Melvin stated that the Brewers will probably go with some of their younger players in the rotation but that he understands the dangers of trusting a small sample size.
As for the offense, Melvin admitted (as reported in this space) that contact was made between him and Josh Hamilton’s agent Michael Moye, but Melvin also said that, “I don’t see (a big-ticket signing) happening. If it does, we’d have to be creative with something.”
Melvin added, “You never know how those things work out. I never thought we’d be able to get Aramis Ramirez last year (for what they signed him for). Things change. If major things happen, you have to be prepared to act quickly.”
In other words, Melvin is reminding everyone that you simply can’t use definitives when discussing transactions in Major Leage Baseball. Or, to go the cliched route…Never say never.
Finally, for the bench, Melvin said that they’re in the market “mostly for depth.” He stated that they “may have to go with some of our younger guys” but that “it’s always nice to have an experienced bat on the bench.”
And since a lot of you have reached out via social media as to why I haven’t pass along many rumors in the last few days, Melvin confirmed that he has made no offers to any free agents yet and, as of the time he said so out loud, he didn’t have any serious trade talks going either.
Then again, he’s in Nashville now at the Winter Meetings. It’s made for just those kinds of things.
Stay tuned all week for reaction and analysis to anything and everything that I hear or read related to the Brewers. I’ll pass it along just as soon as I can.
My suggestion? If you aren’t on Twitter or you are and don’t follow me @BrewerNation…now’s one of the best times of the year to take the plunge. I can’t always blog right away but tweeting is much easier to do on the fly.
Here are today’s official transactions as announced by the team:
- RHP Arcenio Leon claimed off waivers from the Houston Astros
- 1B Travis Ishikawa outrighted to Triple-A Nashville
- RHP Kameron Loe refused an outright assignment to Nashville and has elected free agency
- OF Nyjer Morgan refused an outright assignment to Nashville and has elected free agency
Final Brewers statistics for the three departed:
Nyjer Morgan – 2 seasons, 241 G, 667 AB, .276/.333/.372, 105 R, 184 H, 25 doubles, 9 triples, 7 HR, 53 RBI, 25 SB, 39 BB, 133 K, 91 OPS+
Travis Ishikawa – 1 season, 94 G, 152 AB, .257/.329/.428, 19 R, 39 H, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 13 BB, 42 K, 101 OPS+
Kameron Loe – 3 seasons, 13-17 record, 195 G, 48 GF, 3 Saves, 198.2 IP, 197 H, 94 R, 81 ER, 19 HR, 51 BB, 162 K, 7 HBP, 1.248 WHIP, 110 ERA+
UPDATE: Assistant GM Gord Ash said today that the team hasn’t closed the door on bringing Kameron Loe back but that doing so “would have to be at the right price.”
Here is a link to the podcast of last night’s edition of Brewers Weekly on AM 620 WTMJ radio.
My segment on the show begins at the 24:35 mark, but make sure to listen to the entire recording for Dan O’Donnell’s thoughts and his conversation with Milwaukee Journal/Sentinel Brewers beat writer Tom Haudricourt as well.
The hour show without ads breaks down to 39:19 total.
Enjoy and let me know if you agree or disagree in the comments!
The following transactions were officially executed today:
- José Veras was outrighted off of the 40-man roster and assigned to the Triple-A Nashville Sounds.
- José Veras refused the assignment and declared free agency, as was his option.
- Nyjer Morgan* was outrighted off of the 40-man roster and assigned to the Triple-A Nashville Sounds.
*Morgan has cleared waivers and can elect free agency tomorrow. He is expected to do so.
It’s been quite a while since someone wrote on the blog here other than me, the primary author. This was submitted by my podcast co-host for your enjoyment back near the beginning of August. My crazy schedule led to my forgetting to get it posted until now.
With that said, certain information is “as of writing” and should be taken as such (i.e. Izturis wasn’t yet traded).
By: Cary Kostka
The Brewers were selling in the days leading up the non-waiver trade deadline sending us all on a “what now” path for the rest of this season, as well as what to look for next season. Although this is largely seen as a step backwards for the organization, I see this as an opportunity for the team to be better down the road.
The Brewers have the next couple of months to evaluate their current roster and newly acquired players, and like most Brewer fans I have my own theory as to how the next couple of months should play out.
I broke it down into the following categories: starting pitching, bullpen, catching, infield, and outfield.
The injuries we have seen over the course of the season have given us long looks at Marco Estrada and Mike Fiers, as well as a touch of Tyler Thornburg mixed in.
The Brewers acquired a couple of arms in the Zack Greinke deal, and a bullpen arm in the George Kottaras deal. But what will the rotation look like for now?
Below I have two rotations: one for August, and one for September. You will notice that the September rotation has six pitchers listed. This is not a mistake on my part…I see a 6 man September rotation as a great way to take a look at some additional young arms. With Shaun Marcum’s impending free agency and Randy Wolf’s option possibly not being picked up, the make-up of the 2013 rotation is in the air.
So, here are my projected rotations (not in any particular order) for the rest of 2012.
August rotation: Yovani Gallardo, Wolf, Estrada, Fiers, Marcum/Mark Rogers.
Marcum is still a question mark at this point, and him being moved to the 60-day DL means that he will not be available until the last third of August. He has been feeling good in simulated outings, so I would imagine he would be back in time for a late August start.
September rotation: Gallardo, Wolf, Marcum, Estrada, Fiers, Rogers/Wily Peralta.
Go to a 6-man rotation in September, and in the 6th spot, alternate starts between Peralta and Rogers. Peralta has been pitching much better lately for Nashville (5-2, 3.06 ERA in his last 10 starts).
With his arm fatigue, Thornburg would be best served spending September on the bench or in limited bullpen duty.
What a thorn in the side of the 2012 season this bunch turned out to be. Let’s face it; the bullpen was a heaping load of mediocrity this year.
Try to deal K-Rod if you can…if not, park him at the ass end of the bullpen. I think John Axford will be fine, and a new bullpen coach will help here. The loss of veterans LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito hurt him this year, as he leaned on both of them for advice and instruction (Hawkins in particular).
Below is how the roles should shake out for both August and September.
Closer: Axford and Jim Henderson. Keep throwing Ax out there, but let Henderson continue to get work in as a closer.
Setup/General Relief: Whatever the situation dictates.
Lefty Specialist: Manny Parra Longman/mop-up: Livan Hernandez
Same as August, except you add Rogers and Peralta to the bullpen mix when they are between starts. Park K-Rod and Hernandez on the bench, and let’s see what our newly acquired arms (Pena, Hellweg, and De Los Santos) can do. Thornburg could help here as well, but that depends on how his arm is responding to rest. I’d like to see how Rogers would do in the setup role.
Ok, so this one is easy.
Lucroy is back, but I say split his playing time with Maldonado 60/40. Catchers are the baseball equivalent to NFL running backs; they have short shelf lives due to constant wear and tear. There is no sense in “using up” Lucroy in a non-playoff season. Also, this gives Maldonado a great chance to continue his growth. This pair will be one of the best catching tandems in baseball next season.
Corey Hart is here to stay as our first baseman at least for this season. With Aramis Ramirez entrenched at third, the big questions arise in the middle of the infield.
Rickie Weeks has had just shy of two months of production this year, and shortstop had been ok defensively but a black hole in the lineup, sans Cody Ransom’s innate ability to seemingly make every one of his few and far between hits a game changer.
My thoughts on this are to send Izturis packing…he is not a long term option, and the team would be better off if newly acquired Jean Segura was promoted and started. Jeff Bianchi would be called up on September 1st, and would see some time at short as well.
At second, we’re basically stuck. Would the team be able to find a place on the 25-man roster for Eric Farris? I’d like to see what he’s got, though he projects as more of a backup type player. I would like to see Taylor Green get more playing time to get a better feel for what he is capable of, or not capable of doing. I feel this is something the team needs to know going into next season.
Mat Gamel will be a question mark next season, and if Green shows he can hit, 1B could be a little less of a question mark in spring training, and would allow the team to confidently move Hart back to right. Hart has done pretty well at first, but next season will be the final year of his contract. It would be good to know our other options at that first.
I have heard speculation about giving Green more time at second, but that would be a mistake given his concrete boot like range at second.
Travis Ishikawa maintains his current role on the team.
Trade or waive Nyjer Morgan. He does not have a place on this team at all. I would much rather see Caleb Gindl or Logan Schafer get some MLB trigger time.
Ryan Braun is a lock in left (duh).
The mechanical adjustments Carlos Gomez made recently have upped his game to a new level. Make him the sole starter in center and see where this takes him.
Norichika Aoki has played great and is a lock in right. Call up Gindl as a reserve outfielder, as he has logged double digit games in all three OF spots. Schafer gets the call up on September 1st.
So, Brewer Nation, what say you?
Nyjer Morgan, Brewers Athletic Training Staff, Commissioner Bud Selig, and the Taylor Hooton Foundation to educate Local Milwaukee Youth about the Importance of Leading Healthy and Active Lives
WHAT: 2012 national PLAY Campaign event to be hosted by the Milwaukee Brewers
PLAY, which stands for Promoting a L ifetime of Activity for Youth, is a public awareness campaign of the Professional Baseball Athletic Trainers Society (PBATS), in conjunction with the Taylor Hooton Foundation and MLB Charities. The PLAY Campaign educates America’s young people about the importance of living a healthy and active lifestyle, as well as important decision making regarding performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). The 2012 PLAY Campaign will host events in all 30 MLB stadiums, as well as select minor league stadiums throughout the baseball season.
Commissioner Bud Selig and Jeff Idelson, President of the National Baseball Hall of Fame, will be making an announcement at the end of the event.
WHO: NYJER MORGAN, Brewers Outfielder
BUD SELIG, Commissioner of Major League Baseball
DAN WRIGHT, Brewers Head Athletic Trainer
DAVID YEAGER, Brewers Assistant Athletic Trainer
ROGER CAPLINGER, Brewers Director of Medical Operations
JOSH SELIGMAN, Brewers Strength and Conditioning Coordinator
DON HOOTON SR., Taylor Hooton Foundation
LOCAL MILWAUKEE YOUTH, 100 Kids
WHEN: Tuesday, August 7 | 10:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. (On-field event with athletic trainers and Nyjer Morgan will take place from 10:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. … Commissioner Selig will start his portion of the event at 12:00 p.m.)
WHY: Created in 2004, the PLAY program was formed to raise awareness about children’s health issues and the obesity epidemic in the United States. Since 2004, the PLAY campaign has conducted over 150 events inside all 30 MLB stadiums, reaching tens-of-thousands of America’s young people with positive messages about making healthy decisions and living a more active and healthy lifestyle. In 2008, the Taylor Hooton Foundation joined the PLAY campaign to incorporate its anti-steroid education and generate awareness about one of the fastest growing drugs in America. Young people often lack the education and information about training and eating the healthy way, while staying away from drugs and putting their health and lives at risk.
PLAY events run approximately two hours in length. The kids participating are divided into groups and rotate through a series of stations. Stations touch on everything from healthy eating, injury prevention, a strength and conditioning station, and education about the dangers of steroid abuse.
It’s been about a day and a half since the realization began to hit home that the 2012 edition of the Milwaukee Brewers are likely to fall short of their goal.
In a publicly-declared critical nine-game stretch of games, the team went 4-5 and fell to a season-worst 10.5 games back in the division. The Brewers also sit 7.5 games back of the brand new second wild card as play opens today.
After failing to make any kind of move forward, one must believe that the team will follow through on its unstated directive of working toward competing in the years hence. Doug Melvin made reference of the remarkable turnaround experienced by the World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals last year when they came from over 10 games back in the Wild Card race to make the playoffs. Wisely, however, he also stated that it’s a different set of circumstances for the Brewers this year.
That all led me to open my ears, reach out to a couple of people, and start paying attention to a few things. Here is what I’ve learned so far…
Zack Greinke is a sought-after piece still, though many are waiting to see how he performs in his start in Philadelphia on Tuesday prior to coming near Doug Melvin’s current asking price. That asking price is an MLB-ready arm with less than 18 months of service time (so it doesn’t matter if he’s currently a minor-leaguer) along with a “high-end” prospect at either shortstop or first base.
This lines up roughly to what I expected a return could net Milwaukee. I’ve long thought that a return in potential of what the Cleveland Indians got from the Brewers for CC Sabathia in 2008. Now that was a three-piece deal and featured a different position for the second-best piece, but the amount of talent could be similar.
Moving on, there are plenty of other pieces that could provide value to other teams.
The ones I’ve heard made mention of are Francisco Rodriguez (relatively light though interest could pick up significantly if he pitches well over the next week), George Kottaras (three teams), Corey Hart (four teams), Carlos Gomez (one team).
Again, I’m not sure how willing Melvin is to move Corey Hart but it really does seem like doing so could net the team a decent return. I already have expressed my thoughts about packaging players together previously. It is interesting to note that one team crosses over on the lists of those that have expressed official interest in Hart and Kottaras.
It’s also a bit discouraging that a couple of other names haven’t popped up on the radars of the people I talked to, but Shaun Marcum is still injured and Nyjer Morgan has greatly underachieved this year. I’ll stay on it though.
I have been keeping up with the other rumors out there that are being reported. There is talk that if the Brewers decide to sell hard that the Dodgers would have interest in Aramis Ramirez (as mentioned by Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports). Ken Rosenthal put Randy Wolf’s name out there as someone that could be “in play”, though that choice of words doesn’t mean much to me because all it says is that it makes sense to move him but not that anybody has expressed interest.
Finally, for now, the Brewers have actually been talking to two teams about maybe adding a bullpen arm, believe it or not. I would like to think though that those were due diligence conversations in case the team did well over the nine-game stretch which was just completed.
Again, I’ll do my best to keep my ear to the ground and my finger on the pulse as things develop around the Brewers. Keep in mind though that I have a family and this baseball thing makes me no money so I can’t be on it constantly. If anything breaks though, I’ll be quick to analyze and give my opinion…but if you’ve followed along for a while you already know that giving opinion is not something foreign to me.
Bottom line: Stay tuned. A lot should happen, a little might happen, and of course nothing could happen.
Selling with things to offer makes for a fun situation at times but also a stressful one. Let’s temper our expectations a bit if for no other reason than we will be able to more thoroughly enjoy what return we do get.
It is July 21st and the Milwaukee Brewers are through eight games of a critical, “do or die” (to quote Francisco Rodriguez), direction-defining nine-game intradivisional stretch.
The Brewers have won four of those games and they have lost four of those games. The Brewers sit 9.5 games behind the National League Central Division-leading Cincinnati Reds, who have just taken a pair of games from the Brewers.
The narrative was stated loud and clear over the All-Star Break: Make some hay over the next nine or it’ll be time to sell. Gain some ground or start answering the phone. Win much more than you lose or prepare to be broken up.
No hay was made. No ground was gained. They simply haven’t won enough.
There are valuable, non-cornerstone pieces on this roster that can be of use to teams with achievable aspirations. It’s time for Doug Melvin to move as many of those pieces as he can while, of course, considering roster construction, salary structure, and the future.
Speaking more high-level though, there are a handful of players on the 2012 Brewers who are simply unlikely to be on the 2013 Brewers. This is mostly a list of players whose contract situations (be they pending free agency or non-tender candidacy) point to that end. If those players have value, they need to be sent to someone for something.
This list includes players such as Francisco Rodriguez, Nyjer Morgan, George Kottaras, Shaun Marcum, Travis Ishikawa, Randy Wolf, and the prize of the group: Zack Greinke.
There is a reported offer on the table from the Milwaukee Brewers to Zack Greinke right now in the ballpark of five years and roughly $110 million. Should Greinke decide to accept that offer, then clearly he won’t be getting traded. As he hasn’t done so yet, we must work under the situation as it currently stands. That being: Greinke is a pending free agent.
I’m not writing tonight to tell you who the Brewers should target or who I think they can get from various farm systems throughout baseball. I can tell you that I’ll begin to look at that information in earnest now.
What I am here to say is that it’s no longer time to stand pat and evaluate. The Brewers play another game in Cincinnati tomorrow and then have a three-game set in Philadelphia before coming home for a four-game series against the Washington Nationals. I don’t expect everyone currently on the roster to be on that flight back to General Mitchell International Airport in Milwaukee.
I originally blogged that the decision would be coming on Monday, July 23rd. The nine-game stretch which I identified before the team publicized its importance would be over and the brass would be able to meet Sunday evening and decide.
As is often the case in the prediction business, I was off. I was off on the date, but I was also off in saying that the decision would be made by Brewers brass after some meetings. The decision was made tonight when the team on the field fell to 4-4 in this stretch.
What is left to decide though is how big of a sale to have.
The players I listed earlier all should be moved. There’s no baseball reason to keep any of them if you can get someone to give you something of value in return. The organization clearly wants to keep Miller Park as the summer-long destination for group outings, parties, and money-spending. You can do that, in a sell situation, by highlighting two things: First that this is a necessary evil to ensure success in the near future and second by providing an opportunity to still win on any given night.
Losing many valuable pieces will feel like there’s no chance of winning but Jonathan Lucroy should be back in the bigs soon (maybe even this Thursday as a target?) and they’ll still have Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez (most likely), Norichika Aoki ,and the feel-good story of Mike Fiers. Baseball is still fun, the experience of going to a game and being in the ballpark is still enjoyable in and of itself regardless of team performance, you can still tailgate just as hard before a loss as before a victory.
But again those are impacts on the business and bottom line (which can feed into baseball decisions if there’s enough of a drop off in attendance) decisions.
From pure baseball considerations, however, how big of a sale should Melvin commit to? Because there are a couple of players who are under contract with the Brewers for (at least) 2013 which could net return for the future as well. The biggest piece in that group, to me, is Corey Hart.
Hart is only under contract for 2013 after this year. He is a capable player at the plate despite extremely streaky tendencies. He has proven himself an improbably capable defender at first base which adds to his versatility. Comparable players to Hart have gotten contracts that are extremely cost-prohibitive to a standard Brewers budget. What’s more, Corey Hart has shown zero propensity toward anything resembling a “hometown discount”. He has held out for every possible dollar throughout his arbitration years and you therefore must operate under the assumption that this trend will continue.
Hart could have a ton of value to certain teams right now. Case in point, for the sake of discussion, are the Texas Rangers. They’re set in the outfield when everyone is healthy but they haven’t exactly had a ton of production at first base. Enter Hart who has played tremendous defense and would probably hit even better inside of the Ballpark at Arlington.
It’s something that the Brewers could consider if they decide to reload toward another run in 2015, for instance. Hart would likely be gone anyway so move him early which increases the return and play for a couple of years down the road. If that’s the decision, then guys like Jose Veras (arbitration eligible in 2013 and 2014) could go and, if they decide to jettison everybody not named Braun, Gallardo, and Lucroy, Rickie Weeks (under contract through 2014) and Aramis Ramirez (signed through 2014) could be moved, though they’d be much more likely to go in the off-season or at the 2013 trade deadline. That’s because Weeks’ value is very low right now due to his incredibly slow start this season and Ramirez has two years left on his deal after this season instead of just one like Hart.
But I digress before I get too deep down the rabbit hole of possibilities tonight. For now, the initial group I listed earlier needs to moved if possible. They won’t be on the 2013 Brewers but at least they could still impact that team in a positive way if they are moved now for something that can help later. There will be time for discussions and blog posts about rumor, innuendo, discussion, scuttlebutt, conjecture, and of course wild prognostication.
Well, no more than 10 days, I suppose.
At the close of play today, Thursday, July 5th, the Milwaukee Brewers sit with a record of 38-44, 8.0 games behind the National League Central Divison-leading Pittsburgh Pirates.
It’s a far cry from where the Brewers were a year ago at this time, and at times it feels like this year’s incarnation will never accomplish anything.
While this may prove to be true in the end, at least as far as a playoff participation is concerned, there is still plenty of time left this year to simply enjoy the game of baseball if nothing else.
Then again, there is still a small window of opportunity in front of the Brewers. Between now and Monday, July 23rd is a stretch of 12 regular-season games (along with the MLB All-Star break) which will decide how busy general manager Doug Melvin’s phone will be and whether he’ll be making calls or receiving them.
This stretch is singularly key to the Brewers decision-makers because all 12 games are intradivisional along with the final nine of those games coming against the three teams in front of them in the Division.
The three games prior to the break are in Houston, against an Astros team that traded off one of its only offensive pieces. Those are extremely winnable games, especially given that Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke will be pitching in the series.
The nine games immediately following the break begin with six at Miller Park (a place where the Brewers seriously need to play more consistent baseball) against the Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals, and then three on the road in Cincinnati against the Reds.
The Brewers trail the Cardinals by 5.5 games, the Reds by 6.5 games and, as I mentioned earlier, the Pirates by 8.0 games. So, while the Brewers would be hard-pressed to overtake any of the teams during this stretch, even should they somehow go 12-0, one can see the importance here.
Should the Brewers continue to falter and lose, the front office will be left with little choice but to sell off valuable pieces to the highest bidders. As we discussed on the podcast recorded Thursday morning (which hopefully will be posted soon), those pieces should include Shaun Marcum, George Kottaras, Nyjer Morgan, Francisco Rodriguez, Cesar Izturis, and even Zack Greinke (assuming the team is as far away on a contract offer as it appears that they are). Furthermore, should a team approach the Brewers with an acceptable offer for any expendable member of the Brewers roster, that deal should be made.
Nobody in the locker room wants the team to sell. They enjoy this group and want to maintain it, if at all possible. That just simply can’t happen if they have no chance of winning though.
Now, some may say that after the injuries to Chris Narveson, Mat Gamel and Alex Gonzalez that the team never had a chance, but that’s beside the point.
The point being: if the team can gain some significant ground on the teams ahead of them in the Division, and they do so by showing some consistent play in all facets of the game, the front office would likely try to add to the roster and make a push.
Nobody is saying that this scenario doesn’t seem like a tremendous long shot, but as of today at least its a shot that’s available to take.
Bottom line: Pay attention, Brewer Nation. A decision will be made by Monday, July 23rd as to whether this team buys or sells before the July 31st non-waiver trading deadline. Trust me, either way there will be plenty of time to make one or more deals, regardless of the direction of the roster.
Also, either way, it’ll be an exciting time to pay attention to the team. Just make sure you haven’t checked out by then.